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 Who to believe with polls

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HonkyTonkRunner

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PostSubject: Who to believe with polls   Sun Oct 30, 2016 5:58 pm

FOX has Trump ahead. CNN has Clinton ahead.

Where are the real polls?

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Anotherrun

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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Sun Oct 30, 2016 6:45 pm

Gone, like the real reporters and real newspapers.
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Nazaretti

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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Sun Oct 30, 2016 6:50 pm

Check the website 538.com (you have to spell out the numbers). Nate Silver correctly called 49 or 50 of the 50 states in each of the last two presidential elections. He's pretty non-partisan, really a numbers guy.

Note that the popular vote doesn't really matter, it is the state-by-state electoral vote that will elect the next President
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BIS

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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:45 am

Polls vary quite a bit as to who is taking them and where.

I like 270 to win which looks at composite of polls and how they relate to electoral college votes per state which is really what matters in terms of who will be elected. The map shows each state as either a lock for one candidate, leaning or toss up. It's interesting to look at the battle states like Florida, North Carolina, and unbelievably this time Texas.



270 to win

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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:50 am

Nazaretti wrote:
Check the website 538.com (you have to spell out the numbers).  Nate Silver correctly called 49 or 50 of the 50 states in each of the last two presidential elections.  He's pretty non-partisan, really a numbers guy.

Note that the popular vote doesn't really matter, it is the state-by-state electoral vote that will elect the next President

I like this site as well. 538.com link


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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:52 am

Anotherrun wrote:
Gone, like the real reporters and real newspapers.  

+1 Fox news is a joke. CNN isn't much better.

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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:14 am

Thanks

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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:35 pm

I haven't heard of Trump winning in any poll for months. I think Hillary is the better of the 2 evils.
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Poppy Ott

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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:01 am

RSX wrote:
I haven't heard of Trump winning in any poll for months. I think Hillary is the better of the 2 evils.

Unfortunately, the lesser of two evils is still evil.
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Banana!!

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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Sat Nov 05, 2016 12:31 pm

I've never been so sickened or apprehensive about an election. Hillary is a run of the mill DC politician, I don't like her. But Trump is an unmitigated racist, xenophobe, womanizer, pathological liar, bully, tax cheat, aesthetically ugly, unpatriotic pile of orange shit. I don't want to look at polls, I'm afraid to look at them, and I'm afraid of next Tuesday. If Trump wins, I'm afraid for our country, afraid for our liberties and freedoms. If Hillary wins, I'm also very afraid because it will mean Trump loses. I'm afraid the extremists and fanatics he happily and purposely stirs up will do bad things and people will be hurt. If he loses, I can absolutely see him telling his supporters to go tear things up, to go after Hillary and others he dislikes and harm them physically.
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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Sat Nov 05, 2016 2:40 pm

I would like to think we will wake up Wednesday and it will be behind us. Unfortunately, it might be so close that it will take days or weeks to figure out who won. Hanging chads, anyone?

If the tea-partiers/Trumpettes didn't react violently at the election of Barack Hussein Obama - non-white, strange name, slurs about U.S. citizenship - I don't see them getting violent at Hillary Rodham Clinton.
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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Sat Nov 05, 2016 2:51 pm

Nazaretti wrote:
I would like to think we will wake up Wednesday and it will be behind us.  Unfortunately, it might be so close that it will take days or weeks to figure out who won.  Hanging chads, anyone?

If the tea-partiers/Trumpettes didn't react violently at the election of Barack Hussein Obama - non-white, strange name, slurs about U.S. citizenship - I don't see them getting violent at Hillary Rodham Clinton.

I don't think it will be that close, but you may be right. The media likes to focus on these fringe nut jobs for ratings. Will some fools act out? Maybe, but it will be small isolated incidents hopefully.


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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:48 pm

Now that Hillary is is back in the lead, because of the new FBI email investagation, the stock market is roaring. Looks like she's going to do it-because 'they" whoever that is, wants her in-not Trump.

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Nazaretti

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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:09 pm

HonkyTonkRunner wrote:
Now that Hillary is is back in the lead, because of the new FBI email investagation, the stock market is roaring. Looks like she's going to do it-because 'they" whoever that is, wants her in-not Trump.

The stock market hates uncertainty, and what Trump would do as President is a major uncertainty.
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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Mon Nov 07, 2016 3:59 pm

Banana!! wrote:
I've never been so sickened or apprehensive about an election. Hillary is a run of the mill DC politician, I don't like her. But Trump is an unmitigated racist, xenophobe, womanizer, pathological liar, bully, tax cheat, aesthetically ugly, unpatriotic pile of orange shit. I don't want to look at polls, I'm afraid to look at them, and I'm afraid of next Tuesday. If Trump wins, I'm afraid for our country, afraid for our liberties and freedoms. If Hillary wins, I'm also very afraid because it will mean Trump loses. I'm afraid the extremists and fanatics he happily and purposely stirs up will do bad things and people will be hurt. If he loses, I can absolutely see him telling his supporters to go tear things up, to go after Hillary and others he dislikes and harm them physically.

Unfortunately, there are many, too many Trump supporters who are using the word "revolution".




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HonkyTonkRunner

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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Mon Nov 07, 2016 4:00 pm

Nazaretti wrote:
HonkyTonkRunner wrote:
Now that Hillary is is back in the lead, because of the new FBI email investigation, the stock market is roaring. Looks like she's going to do it-because 'they" whoever that is, wants her in-not Trump.

The stock market hates uncertainty, and what Trump would do as President is a major uncertainty.

Very true.

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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Mon Nov 07, 2016 4:34 pm

NYC has a military? I never knew!

I just hope we have a winner Tuesday night, and it doesn't drag on too long.
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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:00 pm

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NYC has a military?  I never knew!

I just hope we have a winner Tuesday night, and it doesn't drag on too long.

No.

Also, with terrorist threats it's not unusual to see army soldiers in the train stations. I use Penn Station to get into the city, and have seen them. Obviously more cops than soldiers.

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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:12 pm

Very long lines at the polls around here, looks like it will be a record-setting turnout.
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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:51 pm

Nazaretti wrote:
Very long lines at the polls around here, looks like it will be a record-setting turnout.

Same here. We always vote soon after the poles open, often being among the first ten to vote. This morning I was #263.
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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:57 pm

Poppy Ott - Did you have to wait long?

I just voted, at 1:30. 50% of registered voters in my precinct have voted already, and polls stay open until 8PM.
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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:48 pm

Only about ten minutes. There were no ballot measures and only three other races to vote for.
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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:03 pm

I went to the polling place around 10:00. It was packed so I went home and tried again at 1:30. There was no line at all.
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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:44 pm

We are out in the country. Zero wait. In and out in in 5 minutes.

Some of our important ballot measures:

Legalize weed.

Make plastic bags illegal.

Require porn stars to wear condoms. (not joking)


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Nazaretti

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PostSubject: Re: Who to believe with polls   Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:24 pm

I'm glad I do not live in California!
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